Thursday, January 15, 2015

Jedeye Mind Tricks

... in a desperate attempt to fool Nature.

The Setup

So this chart has been distributed with laughably earnest intent on the Innert00bs of late:

It's my favorite inaugural member of the Hall of Shame, and today the WTFUWTters  gave me the perfect excuse to devote a post to it:
I’m pleased to see dbstealey’s graph of Global Warming. I presume it’s in degrees Fahrenheit? Did you graph it yourself?

I’d be grateful to see one prepared in Kelvin, and preferably with a link to the web page GISS has their data on, not merely to GISS said it, user can hunt through everything GISS ever said in order for user to find out where they said it.

If anyone can create such a graph I’d appreciate it.

How Can I Resist?

I mean, I've only been snarkily asking them the same question for weeks now.  So here it is, in all its glory, a perfectly useless plot of GISTemp LOTI absolute surface temperatures converted to the Kelvin scale [1]:


[1] A good discussion about why absolute surface temperatures are all but meaningless no mater what units are used can be found in the GISS website article, The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT).  The salient portion:
Q. What do I do if I need absolute SATs, not anomalies ?
A. In 99.9% of the cases you'll find that anomalies are exactly what you need, not absolute temperatures. In the remaining cases, you have to pick one of the available climatologies and add the anomalies (with respect to the proper base period) to it. For the global mean, the most trusted models produce a value of roughly 14°C, i.e. 57.2°F, but it may easily be anywhere between 56 and 58°F and regionally, let alone locally, the situation is even worse.
I didn't totally ignore their good advice, the plot above adds 14°C to the anomaly data to get the very roughly estimated absolute SAT, then 273.15 on top of that to convert Celsius to Kelvins.

[2] "What?" you say, "There is no note [2]!"  :-)


Took me long enough to think of this ... why not do a GISTemp to CMIP5 comparison and see what it looks like?

Hey!  Suddenly the models don't look like such abysmal failures!


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