The Oceans Ate My Global Warming is not Ad Hockery

Preramble

As I was knocking about Twitter, I stumbled upon this little bit of a conversation we've had a bazillion times:

It's an ad hoc hypothesis then. The models that utilized the hypothesis that increased atmospheric CO2 should result in swiftly rising temperatures on earth were mostly wrong. Then modelers post hoc change the models, rerun the data, and proclaim that the models are spot on. #AGW pic.twitter.com/wzYOfM3pTu

— On the North Coast (@usanorthcoast) June 11, 2018

I thought it might be fun to go snorkeling on teh Goggle Scholar for dusty old papers from the '70s and '80s discussing the ocean's role in interannual and interdecadal climate variability.

Common Era Temperature Reconstructions vs. Solar and Volcanic Forcing

... because wiggle matching is so much fun.

Background

The original inspiration for doing these plots goes back a bit, but have recently become topical at Judith Curry's by way of a guest post, Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies, written by a fellow called Javier.  It's a lengthy post, and I'm not going to attempt to dig into it here.

CFCs and Ozone

... yes, some people still have trouble accepting the inverse relationship they have.

Background

I was invited to respond to this comment:

climatereason | July 1, 2016 at 4:37 pm | Reply
Bit bemused by the ozone hole story. 2015 was the fourth largest ozone hole since the satellite record began. The peak size is generally reached in October as the sunlight and cold reach their maximum.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/ozone.php
Can somebody explain on what basis this claim has been made?

Comparing Individual CMIP5 Models To Observations

... because it just never gets old.

Background

One of the Denizens at Judy's writes in response to my question of Mike Flynn:

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PA | June 24, 2016 at 11:05 am | Reply

Again: Where is your CMIP5-compatible model which beats the present state of the art at its own game?

The Russian INMCM4 is arguably the most accurate or one of the most accurate in terms of predictive trend

The INMCM4 model predicts little future warming.

Question asked and answered.

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US Economic Indicators by Presidential Party

... or even more election year fodder for partisan sniping.

Background

I hate arguing politics on the Innert00bs, but sometimes I just can't resist:

Glenn Stehle | June 15, 2016 at 9:25 pm |

Ron Graf said:

Since then the Democrats have been perpetually promising a “New Deal,” always financed by the children of the future, catering compassionately to Dem voters.

Did you miss the part back in 1971 when Nixon proclaimed, “We’re all Keynesians now?”

The Proposition that Rising CO2 Cools Central Antarctica

... no, I haven't lost my mind.

Background

I've written about this topic previously, I think in conversations with Chic Bowdrie.  Rather than try to dig that up again, I give the present inspiration for writing this note dedicated to the concept.  From Dr. Curry's Climate Etc. blog, we read these two comments:

captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3 | May 7, 2016 at 3:13 pm |

[Steven Mosher] “C02 does it’s work ABOVE the ERL.”

What’s the effective temperature of that effective radiant layer again?

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captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3 | May 7, 2016 at 5:26 pm |

RiHo08, “Is this the battle ground where CO2 and Ozone duke it out; one for cooling and the other warming?”

All of the greenhouse gases have temperature and pressure “sweet spots” where they are most effective at doing the greenhouse thing. Below that sweet spot they become less and less effective as noted in the Antarctic where increasing CO2 likely increases cooling.

Fort McMurray Wildfire and Climate Change

... another example of the uneasy interface between policy politics and science.

Background

CTV in Calgary has what appears to be the grabbiest headline as well as some sobering numbers:

Wildfire near Fort McMurray grows to over 100,000 hectares

[...]

Thousands of people who became trapped after fleeing the fires in and around Fort McMurray earlier this week are being moved out of the area to safety by RCMP and air transport.

An evacuation order was issued for Fort McMurray and surrounding communities earlier this week and more than 80,000 people left the area.

About 25,000 evacuees headed north to oilsands camps and some became stranded after several roads in the area were closed. Approximately 7000 were air lifted out on Thursday by WestJet and other carriers.

Converting hectares to more familiar units, we get 386 square miles.  For comparison, the US State of Rhode Island weighs in at 1,212 square miles, so this fire has burnt an area equal to nearly 1/3 the size.  Including the endzones, that works out to 186,824 American Football fields.  I don't think I need to convert to Olympic-sized swimming pools; you get the point.

There have been larger wildfires; the main issue with this one is that it's threatening a sizable population center, prompting a large evacuation requiring airlifts due to road closures.

Well that, and the inevitable controversy when climate scientists go on record in the mainstream press saying climate change is a factor.